Techno-managerial Considerations for 5G Deployment in India

Abstract

A seamless high-speed wireless network connectivity is the most fundamental requirement of the rapidly emerging hyper-connected society. Such network connectivity must be able to exchange high volume data traffic at low latencies actively. The currently existing mobile network generations, namely second (2G), third (3G) and fourth (4G) generations, are inadequate to meet such requirements of data volume and speed. However, the fifth generation (5G) of mobile networks-to be available commercially after the year 2020-are hailed as the solution to these rising demand for service quality levels. The early prototypes of 5G exhibit: highly improved user experience due to enhanced efficiencies in spectrum utilization, higher throughput per unit cost, and lower energy consumption. The regulatory bodies in various parts of the world, including the USA, China, Europe, and India are understandably aligning the road-maps and priorities for a coordinated 5G deployment in their respective countries. The slowly evolving business case for 5G, however, still needs to be made on a country by country basis. We draw attention to one such aspect which is missing emphasis in the extant academic research related to the business case for 5G in India. Specifically, the extant research in the Indian scenario lacks in the techno-financial feasibility assessments for different deployment use-cases, i.e., metropolitan, urban, suburban and rural. The available literature also does not incorporate rigorous demand forecasting of the market potential (in terms of the number of subscribers as well as the transient data volume demand) for 5G under each use-case. In the absence of these feasibility analyses, the Mobile Network Operators’ (MNOs) uncertainty regarding the returns from infrastructure deployment and service provisioning remains high. This study, therefore, provides a use-case scenario-based assessment of techno-financial feasibility for 5G deployment in India. We take into account growth curve-based demand forecasting of 5G services from the MNOs perspective. The analysis incorporates 5G characteristics of network densification, use of newer spectrum bands belonging to the millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequency and the cellular coverage and capacity constraints in a heterogeneous network (HetNet) framework. We evaluate the demand of 5G during 2020-2030, the expected levels of network infrastructure to ensure cellular coverage and cellular capacity, and the capital (CAPEX) and the operational (OPEX) expenditures incurred in such deployments. The modeling approach followed in the paper uses a combination of ordinary- and non-linear least-squares (OLS and NLS, respectively) regression–used for the growth curve-based forecasting. Based on our analysis, we posit that standalone deployment of 5G services can ensure seamless delivery of mobile broadband services in the wake of higher data demand of the consumers, while also being financially feasible, however, the legacy networks and the financial locking-in of the incumbent MNOs due to the presence of such legacy networks, would be the real challenge for all the stakeholder to overcome in the coming years.