A Mathematical Model to determine the Reliability Percentage of a Statement using the Bounded Confidence of Opinion Dynamics

Abstract

Opinion Dynamics procures a prudent tool for modeling opinion management. Existing studies primarily focused on agent-based opinion measures, which was the key issue in the field of Opinion Dynamics. The primary domain of this study is to determine the reliability of a statement with the help of aggregated group opinion values of the associated local agents. This paper proposes a new Mathematical model of Opinion Dynamics which is a slight modification of the Bounded Confidence model to find the Reliability Percentage of a statement. In Opinion Dynamics the Bounded Confidence model is represented as a stochastic model that evolves continuous-valued opinions within a finite group of agents. Based on the opinion values given by the local agents regarding any situation, our mathematical model computes aggregated group opinion which is used to find the Reliability Percentage of a statement that is associated with the same situation. A real data set on the Nepal earthquake is used to illustrate and justify the feasibility of the proposed mathematical model. With this model, the effects of the reliability percentage are explored based on two different Twitter statements.